International Relations

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10679/714

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Browsing by Author "Demiralp, S."

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    Debating voter defection in Turkey
    (Taylor & Francis, 2023-10-20) Paker, Evren Balta; Demiralp, S.; Demiralp, S.; International Relations; BALTA, Evren
    This study examines patterns of voter defection from Turkey’s incumbent AKP amid major economic and democratic decline. As in other electoral autocracies, defectors constitute a small but politically significant group in Turkey, where the opposition’s ability to secure a transition from authoritarianism depends on reducing the incumbent’s vote share. Based on survey data gathered in November 2021 and February 2022, we find that while the high level of partizanship among AKP voters hinders defection, persistent economic and democratic decline still reduces incumbent support. We also found that defections are higher outside of the lowest income group. Our findings have important implications for opposition strategies in electoral autocracies. Directing public debate away from identity issues to economic and democratic problems increases the likelihood of defection. In addition, offering voters clear superior alternatives decreases the cost of uncertainty that comes with change and increases the likelihood of defection.
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    Defeating populists: The case of 2019 Istanbul elections
    (Taylor & Francis, 2021) Demiralp, S.; Paker, Evren Balta; International Relations; BALTA, Evren
    How can populist competitive authoritarian regimes be defeated through elections? In this article, we focus on the 2019 municipal campaign strategy of the opposition Istanbul candidate Ekrem İmamoglu as a case study of a successful challenge to a populist competitive authoritarian regime. We argue that such regimes may be prone to defeat when their opponents use what we call an ‘inverted populist’ strategy. This strategy involves three key elements: adopting an indirect and gradualist approach that avoids direct confrontation with the populist leader and the popular values s/he represents, redefining the ‘the people’ by including previously excluded groups, and promising redistribution to disadvantaged groups.