Organizational Unit: International Finance
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ArticlePublication Metadata only Do mutual funds herd in industries?(Elsevier, 2015-03) Çeliker, Umut; Chowdhury, J.; Sonaer, G.; International Finance; ÇELİKER, UmutThis study examines whether mutual funds herd in industries and the extent to which such herding impacts industry valuations. Using two herding measures proposed by Lakonishok et al. (1992) and Sias (2004) we document that mutual funds herd in industries. We show that industry herding is not driven by fund flows and that it is not a manifestation of individual stock herding. We also find evidence indicating that herding in industries by mutual funds is related to the industry momentum phenomenon first documented by Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999), but it does not drive industry valuations away from their fundamentals.Conference paperPublication Metadata only An approximation of stochastic telegraph equations(AIP Publishing, 2012) Ashyralyev, A.; Akat, Muzaffer; International Finance; AKAT, MuzafferIn the present paper the two-step difference scheme for the telegraph equation is presented. The convergence estimate for the solution of the difference scheme is established. In applications, the convergence estimates for the solution of difference scheme for the numerical solution of two problems for hyperbolic equations are obtained. The theoretical statements for the solution of this difference scheme are supported by the results of the numerical experiment.ArticlePublication Open Access The real estate and credit bubble: evidence from Spain(Springer Science+Business Media, 2014-08) Akın, Özlem; Montalvo, J. G.; Villar, J. G.; Peydró, J.-L.; Raya, J. M.; International Finance; PARLAYAN, Özlem AkınWe analyze the determinants of real estate and credit bubbles using a unique borrower-lender matched dataset on mortgage loans in Spain. The dataset contain real estate credit and price conditions (loan principal and spread, and the appraisal and market price) at the mortgage level, matched with borrower characteristics (such as income, labor status and contract) and the lender identity, over the last credit boom and bust. We find that lending standards are softer in the boom than in the bust. Moreover, despite some adjustment in lending conditions in the good times depending on borrower risk, the results suggest too soft lending standards and excessive risk-taking in the boom. For example, mortgage spreads for non-employed are identical to employed borrowers during the boom. Banks with worse corporate governance problems soften even more the standards. Finally, we analyze the mechanism by which banks could increase the supply of mortgage loans despite of regulatory restrictions on LTVs. The evidence is consistent with banks encouraging real estate appraisal firms to introduce an upward bias in appraisal prices (29 %), to meet loan-to-value regulatory thresholds (40 % of mortgages are just bunched on these limits), thus building-up the credit and the real estate bubble.ArticlePublication Open Access Political connections and informed trading: Evidence from TARP(Wiley, 2021-09) Akın, Özlem; Coleman, N. S.; Fons‐Rosen, C.; Peydró, J.-L.; International Finance; PARLAYAN, Özlem AkınWe study insider trading behavior surrounding the largest bank bailout in history: Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). In politically connected banks, insider buying during the pre-TARP period is associated with increases in abnormal returns around bank-specific TARP announcement; for unconnected banks, trading and returns are uncorrelated. Results hold across insiders within the same bank and are stronger for finance-related government connections. Through a Freedom of Information Act request, we obtained the previously undisclosed TARP funds requested; the ratio of received to requested funds correlates both with abnormal returns and insider buying behavior in connected banks.ArticlePublication Metadata only Cash flow news, discount rate news, and momentum(Elsevier, 2016-11) Çeliker, Umut; Kayaçetin, Volkan; Kumar, R.; Sonaer, G.; International Finance; KAYAÇETİN, Nuri Volkan; ÇELİKER, UmutWe examine the effect of aggregate cash flow news and discount rate news on momentum returns. We find that momentum profits are higher following aggregate positive cash flow news, even in down markets or low sentiment periods. This finding expands on the evidence in Cooper et al. (2004) that momentum is significant only when past market returns are non-negative and in Antoniou et al. (2013) that momentum is weaker when sentiment is pessimistic. We find that the higher momentum profits during aggregate positive cash flow news periods are primarily driven by the losers continuing to underperform in subsequent periods. Our findings are consistent with the Hong and Stein (1999) model in the sense that gradual diffusion of contradictory news is accentuated when change in wealth is positive and relatively more permanent.ArticlePublication Open Access Market-neutral trading with fuzzy inference, a new method for the pairs trading strategy(Kaunas University of Technology, 2019) Bayram, M.; Akat, Muzaffer; International Finance; AKAT, MuzafferPricing of financial instruments and stock market predictions is a specific and relatively narrow field, which has been mainly explored by mathematicians, economists and financial engineers. Prediction to make profits in a martingale domain is a hard task. Pairs trading, a market neutral arbitrage strategy, attempts to resolve the drawback of unpredictability and yield market independent returns using relative pricing idea. If two securities have similar characteristics, so should their prices. Deviation from the acceptable similarity range in price is considered an anomaly, and whenever noticed, trading is executed assuming the anomaly will correct itself. This work proposes a fuzzy inference model for the market-neutral pairs trading strategy. Fuzzy logic lets mimicking human decision-making in a complex trading environment and taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities that the crisp models may miss to acquire for trade decision-making. Spread between two co-integrated stocks and volatility of the spread are used as decision-making inputs. The main focus of this study is the contribution of the fuzzy engine to the existing pairs trading strategies based on the spread measure. Widespread classical 'crisp' techniques are chosen and compared with the developed fuzzy' model. Significant enhancement on the performance of the trading strategies has been reported.ArticlePublication Metadata only Local house price effects of internal migration in queensland: Australia's interstate migration capital(Wiley, 2023-06) Erol, Işıl; Ünal, U.; International Finance; EROL, IşılWe examine the causal impact of internal migration on housing prices across 82 Statistical Areas Level 3 regions in Queensland, Australia from 2014–2019. The primary findings are: (i) an annual increase in the inflow of migrants equal to 1 per cent of a region's initial population leads to a 0.6 to 0.7 per cent annual increase in Queensland's house prices across different empirical specifications; (ii) this effect differs between the Greater Brisbane metropolitan area and Rest of State areas; (iii) migration from New South Wales fails to produce a significant influence on house price growth in Queensland.ArticlePublication Metadata only Trading ambiguity: A tale of two heterogeneities(Wiley, 2023) Mukerji, S.; Özsöylev, Han Nazmi; Tallon, J. M.; International Finance; ÖZSÖYLEV, Han NazmiWe consider markets with heterogeneously ambiguous assets and heterogeneously ambiguity-averse investors whose preferences are a parsimonious extension of the mean–variance framework. We study portfolio choice and trade upon arrival of public information, and show systematic departures from the predictions of standard theory, that occur in the direction of empirical regularities. In particular, our theory speaks to several phenomena in a unified fashion: the asset allocation puzzle, the observation that earnings announcements are followed by significant trading volume with small price change, and that increases in uncertainty are positively associated with increased trading activity and portfolio rebalancing toward safer assets.Book ChapterPublication Metadata only Global trends in liquidity creation: The role of the off-balance sheet(Peter Lang AG, 2019-03-28) Akın, Özlem; Özsoy, Satı Mehmet; Economics; International Finance; PARLAYAN, Özlem Akın; ÖZSOY, Satı MehmetBanks create liquidity by transforming liquid liabilities into illiquid assets and this is one of their main functions. Yet excessive liquidity creation, especially via off-balance sheet activities, might have contributed to the 2008-2009 financial crisis. In this chapter, we analyze the dynamics of liquidity creation in Turkey and the United States, and the contribution of off-balance sheet activities therein.ArticlePublication Open Access On the numerical schemes for Langevin-type equations(Karaganda University, 2020) Akat, Muzaffer; Kosker, R.; Sirma, A.; International Finance; AKAT, MuzafferIn this paper, a numerical approach is proposed based on the variation-of-constants formula for the numerical discretization Langevin-type equations. Linear and non-linear cases are treated separately. The proofs of convergence have been provided for the linear case, and the numerical implementation has been executed for the non-linear case. The order one convergence for the numerical scheme has been shown both theoretically and numerically. The stability of the numerical scheme has been shown numerically and depicted graphically.