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The golden rule of forecasting: objections, refinements, and enhancements
(Elsevier, 2015-08)
In providing a “golden rule” for forecasting, Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (this issue) raise aspirations that reliable forecasting is possible. They advocate a conservative approach that mainly involves extrapolating from ...
Communicating forecasts: the simplicity of simulated experience
(Elsevier, 2015-08)
It is unclear whether decision makers who receive forecasts expressed as probability distributions over outcomes understand the implications of this form of communication. We suggest a solution based on the fact that people ...
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