Assembly-based flood repair cost and time models for industrial buildings in Turkey

Abstract

Flooding is one of the most frequent hazard events significantly affecting the industry in Turkey, leading to severe economic losses and business disruptions. To predict the direct flood losses and business downtimes on the industry, this study proposes probabilistic cost and time models of repairing direct physical flood damage to industrial buildings in Turkey. Using field notes and literature reviews, a typical industrial building was first disassembled into a list of building components vulnerable to flooding. With a focus on façade and interior building components, the flood damage potential of each component was assessed at different flood depths and velocities. Damage state relationships were established for the building components to connect their damage levels under flood actions to their individual repair work. Using the assembly-based approach, costs and times of repairing each flood-damaged component and their associated variabilities were assembled in a probabilistic approach to develop total flood repair cost and time models. The results show that typical repair costs and times for facilities subjected to significant flood depths and velocities might reach substantial levels, up to 28% of building replacement costs and 165 working days on average. The proposed models systematically incorporate existing important uncertainties, therefore, provide reliable estimates.