Person: TRAVLOS, Konstantinos
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Konstantinos
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TRAVLOS
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ArticlePublication Open Access Breaking the stalemate in the study of the relationship of mutual military buildups, arms races, and militarized disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire cases(Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research İhsan Doğramacı Peace Foundation, 2023-04) Nioutsikos, I.; Travlos, Konstantinos; Daskalopoulou, M.; International Relations; TRAVLOS, KonstantinosThe most recent surveys on the study of the connection between mutual military buildups, arms races, and military interstate disputes (MID) warn of research projects, especially in the case of the Greece-Turkey dyad, that have reached a stalemate. This is due to the difficulty of capturing motivations, which constitute the main variable that turns mutual military buildups into arms races. Using the Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey dyads as proof-of-concept cases, we advance a novel approach for analyzing the interrelation between mutual military buildups, arms races, and MIDs that can overcome that stalemate. We suggest a two-stage approach that focuses on the dyad as a unit of analysis. In the first stage, which we preset here, we use rivalry to divide dyad history into periods of differing subsistence military spending. We then locate periods of mutual military buildups in the different rivalry periods of a dyad history. We argue that this process provides a more nuanced and detailed grasp on the presence of mutual military buildups in a dyad. It also provides the foundation for the future second stage of analysis, where qualitative research can focus on the specific periods of mutual military buildups to unearth indicators of motivation.
ArticlePublication Metadata only Insulating peace: Managerial coordination in durable security complexes(Oxford University Press, 2021-04-14) Travlos, Konstantinos; International Relations; TRAVLOS, KonstantinosI argue that insulation via managerial coordination is a key element in any explanation about the formation of political regions among states. The key role it plays is as a tool for the maintenance of intra-regional pacific relations in the face of diffusion and contagion processes, resulting from continued security linkages with excluded extra-regional states. In order to explore these dynamics, I propose a new reconceptualization of the concept of managerial coordination based on the basic framework concept mapping tool. This leads to clarity about what managerial coordination does as a dimension of insulation. It also necessitates a revamp of the scale of interstate managerial coordination as a measuring instrument of the intensity of collective intentionality toward insulation among the members of a region. I then map the region concept of durable security complex (DSC) as the scope for the enactment of managerial coordination, based on a review of existing region concepts in the new regionalist literature. I then conduct an ideographic proof-of-concept exercise on three DSCs in the presence or absence of managerial coordination. These are the Scandinavian states, the South Asian regional security complex, and the South American Norther Tier local hierarchy. The exercise provides indicators for a number of theoretical propositions worthy of future evaluation.ArticlePublication Open Access Mobilization follies in international relations: A multimethod exploration of why some decision makers fail to avoid war when public mobilization as a bargaining tool fails(Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research, Ihsan Dogramaci Peace Foundation, 2019-07) Travlos, Konstantinos; International Relations; TRAVLOS, KonstantinosThis paper is intended to serve as a show and tell model for graduate students. Sections in parentheses and italics provide a running commentary by the author on the decisions taken throughout the paper. The goal is to permit students to follow the thinking of the researcher and see how it guided the theoretical, methodological and other decisions on content that finally made it into the paper. The paper in question explores how "public" military mobilization can be an attempt by weak actors to trigger intervention by third parties in a dispute with a stronger actor, in the hopes that the third parties will force the stronger actor to accommodate the weaker actor. This attempt is called "compellence via proxy". In this research I explore why in reaction to failure, some weak actors are able to avoid escalation to war, while others are not. I posit that the flexibility of the decision makers of the weak actors is influenced by their ability to overhaul their winning coalition. A large-n evaluation of 68 cases of "public" mobilization, and an evaluation of six Balkan state mobilizations in the 1878-1909 em, do not support the idea that the size of the winning coalition, a part of the factors determining overhaul, has an association with war onset or its avoidance.ArticlePublication Metadata only Insulating peace: Managerial coordination in durable security complexes(Oxford University Press, 2021-04-14) Travlos, Konstantinos; International Relations; TRAVLOS, KonstantinosI argue that insulation via managerial coordination is a key element in any explanation about the formation of political regions among states. The key role it plays is as a tool for the maintenance of intra-regional pacific relations in the face of diffusion and contagion processes, resulting from continued security linkages with excluded extra-regional states. In order to explore these dynamics, I propose a new reconceptualization of the concept of managerial coordination based on the basic framework concept mapping tool. This leads to clarity about what managerial coordination does as a dimension of insulation. It also necessitates a revamp of the scale of interstate managerial coordination as a measuring instrument of the intensity of collective intentionality toward insulation among the members of a region. I then map the region concept of durable security complex (DSC) as the scope for the enactment of managerial coordination, based on a review of existing region concepts in the new regionalist literature. I then conduct an ideographic proof-of-concept exercise on three DSCs in the presence or absence of managerial coordination. These are the Scandinavian states, the South Asian regional security complex, and the South American Norther Tier local hierarchy. The exercise provides indicators for a number of theoretical propositions worthy of future evaluation.ArticlePublication Open Access Islands in a sea of fog: a rapid evidence assessment of quantitative research in the pre-1816 period(Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi, 2016) Travlos, Konstantinos; International Relations; TRAVLOS, KonstantinosIn this manuscript I present a rapid evidence assessment of articles that use quantitative methods to analyze peace and conflict dynamics, and topics relevant to conflict processes, in temporal domains that include periods before 1816. The study of pre-modern international relations using quantitative methods is a minority endeavor in the field. Using a semi-random sample of 54 articles published between 1970-2015 I familiarize scholars with this scholarly corpus. I evaluate what that corpus can tell us about the argument that the pre-1816 period is to different from the post-1816 period for useful cross-period comparison. The findings do not support such an argument of difference.ArticlePublication Open Access Caricaturing the enemy: caricatures and the Greek-Turkish War 1919-1922(Cracow Tertium Society for the Promotion of Language Studies, 2022) Travlos, Konstantinos; Akyüz, D.; Mert-Travlos, C.; International Relations; TRAVLOS, KonstantinosA century ago, the Greek-Turkish War of 1919-1922 (Turkish War of Liberation/Asia Minor Campaign) was reaching its culmination point. The war was also fought in the pages of the Press. In this study, we look at the characteristics of the caricatures marshalled in the war effort by three publications. The Greek newspaper Skrip, and the Turkish satirical magazines Karagöz and Güleryüz. We find that most expectations based on semiotics and the concept of interstate rivalry are borne out. Depictions of the ‘Other’ are generally negative. That said we also find that Skrip dedicated the majority of its caricatures to targeting the internal ‘Other’, the Venizelist faction during the National Schism, in contrast to the more focused targeting of the Greek ‘Other’ by the Turkish publications. This finding indicates the dominance of domestic conflicts over the external conflict even during the inflation point of the Greek-Turkish Interstate Rivalry of 1866-1925ArticlePublication Metadata only Integrating realist and neoliberal theories of war(Walter de Gruyter, 2019-05) Geller, D. S.; Travlos, Konstantinos; International Relations; TRAVLOS, KonstantinosThe requirements for global security and international stability vary according to the perspective brought to bear on the subject. Indeed, the structural realist and neoliberal paradigms present markedly different views on the sources of war and prescriptions for peace. Structural realism focuses on system-level capability distributions, alliances, and dyadic power balances as factors associated with the onset of war. Neoliberalism emphasizes the importance of international institutions, democracy, and economic interdependence in maintaining global security. This study develops an integrated model of war and peace based on system-level factors drawn from both paradigms and utilizes a new database reflecting the level of major power policy coordination. The findings for the period of 1816-2007 indicate that interaction effects of these realist and neoliberal variables complement their relationships with global patterns of interstate conflict. The basic conclusion to be drawn is that both concentrated power and managerial cooperation at the apex of the international system are required to produce a more peaceful world.ArticlePublication Open Access Making a case over Greco-Turkish rivalry: major power linkages and rivalry strength(Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi Derneği İktisadi İşletmesi, 2018) Sert, Deniz Şenol; Travlos, Konstantinos; International Relations; TRAVLOS, Konstantinos; SERT, DenizThe goal of the paper is to explore how the intensity of the Greco-Turkish rivalry (in the 19th and 20th centuries) was affected by variation in the intensity of rivalries between major powers that have political and military connections to Greece and Turkey. By comparing the effect of relevant major power rivalries with a battery of alternative domestic, dyadic, military, and political variables, the article serves as a deductive evaluation to see how important, if at all, variation in the volatility of intensity of the relevant major power rivalries is on the Greek-Turkish rivalry intensity volatility.