International Finance

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10679/314

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Open Access
Adaptive pairs trading strategy performance in Turkish derivatives exchange with the companies listed on Istanbul stock exchange
(Springer International Publishing, 2012-03-02) Bolgün, K. E.; Kurun, E.; Güven, Serhat; Güven, Serhat
We implemented model-driven statistical arbitrage strategies in Turkish equities market. Trading signals are generated by optimized parameters of distance method. When the trade in signal is triggered by the model, market-neutral portfolio is created by long in the synthetic ETF, which is based on constrained least squares regression of selected Istanbul Stock Exchange stocks and short in Turkish Derivatives Exchange (Turkdex) index futures contract. We performed pairs trading strategy based on a comparative mean reversion of asset prices with daily data over the period February 2005 through July 2011 in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and Turkdex. We constructed a hypothetical ISE30 ETF Index on a daily basis in order to originate pairs trading strategy with Turkdex. Because of the leverage rule of (1–10) index futures contracts, we had to evaluate spot stock pairs formation with futures contracts pairs strategy. The results indicate that applied pairs strategy produced overall returns of 901 per cent during the investment period, whereas naive strategy (buy and hold ISE-30 index) return for the same period was 111 per cent. Similar outperformance was observed in the Sharpe and Sortino ratios.
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Algorithmic pairs trading with expert inputs, a fuzzy statistical arbitrage framework
(IOS Press, 2020) Bayram, M.; Akat, Muzaffer; Bulkan, S.; International Finance; AKAT, Muzaffer
Pairs trading is a widespread market-neutral trading strategy aiming to utilize the relationship between pairs of financial instruments in efficient markets, where predictability of separate asset movements is theoretically not possible. The implication of trading pairs, following statistical analysis, is to buy the underpriced asset while short selling the overpriced. The predicted price relationship is determined through analysis of historical spread data between the members of the corresponding pair. The investor expects the price difference, in an efficient market, should converge and stocks return to their ‘fair value’, where the positions are closed and profit is realized. The main focus of this study is the contribution of the fuzzy engine to the existing pairs trading strategy. Widespread classical ‘crisp’ technique is chosen, utilized and compared with the developed ‘fuzzy’ model throughout the paper. In order to further improve this contribution, the expert opinions extracted from the Bloomberg database are also integrated into the fuzzy decision-making process. In most studies, transaction costs are simply ignored. As a final robustness check, the transaction costs are also considered. The improvement reached by the developed fuzzy technique is observed to be even more remarkable in this case.
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Analysis of cross-country variations in the depth of European mortgage markets
(Springer Science+Business Media, 2016-09) Kutlukaya, M.; Erol, Işıl; International Finance; EROL, Işıl
To date, quantitative analysis on the depth of mortgage markets across a broad set of countries has been very limited. This paper uses a rich and balanced data set on 31 European countries to investigate the cross-country variations in the depth of mortgage markets during the period 2005–2012. The present paper might be accepted as the updated and enriched version of existing research for the European region in terms of the coverage of countries, historical data and the empirical analyses. Our empirical findings reveal that developed countries have sizeable residential mortgage markets and this is mainly associated with higher urbanization rates and stronger legal rights. One of the most notable results of this study is that, statistical significance of explanatory variables in modeling the depth of the mortgage markets depends heavily on both the variables, countries (regions) included in the models and the regression methodology used. Hence, we argue that strong conclusions based on such analyses should be avoided and the findings of previous research on the variations of the depth of mortgage markets should be carefully evaluated.
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Anticipating the financial crisis: evidence from insider trading in banks
(Oxford University Press, 2020-04) Akın, Özlem; Marín, J. M.; Peydro, J. - L.; International Finance; PARLAYAN, Özlem Akın
Banking crises are recurrent phenomena, often induced by excessive bank risk-taking, which may be due to behavioural reasons (over-optimistic banks neglecting risks) and to conflicts of interest between bank shareholders/managers and debtholders/taxpayers (banks exploiting moral hazard). We test whether US banks' stock returns in the 2007-8 financial crisis are associated with bank insiders' sales of their own bank's shares in the period prior to 2006Q2 (the peak and reversal in real estate prices). We find that top-five executives' sales of shares predict bank performance during the crisis. Interestingly, effects are insignificant the sales of independent directors and other officers. Moreover, the top-five executives' impact is stronger for banks with higher exposure to the real estate bubble, where a one standard deviation increase of insider sales is associated with a 13.33 percentage point drop in stock returns during the crisis period. Finally, even though bankers in riskier banks sold more shares (furthering their own interests), they did not change their bank's policies, for example, by reducing bank-level exposure to real estate. The informational content of bank insider trading before the crisis suggests that insiders knew that their banks were taking excessive risks, which has important implications for theory, public policy and the understanding of crises, as well as a supervisory tool for early warning signals.
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An approximation of stochastic hyperbolic equations: case with Wiener process
(Wiley, 2013-06) Ashyralyev, A.; Akat, Muzaffer; International Finance; AKAT, Muzaffer
In the present paper, the two-step difference scheme for the Cauchy problem for the stochastic hyperbolic equation is presented. The convergence estimate for the solution of the difference scheme is established. In applications, the convergence estimates for the solution of difference schemes for the numerical solution of four problems for hyperbolic equations are obtained. The theoretical statements for the solution of this difference scheme are supported by the results of the numerical experiment.
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An approximation of stochastic telegraph equations
(AIP Publishing, 2012) Ashyralyev, A.; Akat, Muzaffer; International Finance; AKAT, Muzaffer
In the present paper the two-step difference scheme for the telegraph equation is presented. The convergence estimate for the solution of the difference scheme is established. In applications, the convergence estimates for the solution of difference scheme for the numerical solution of two problems for hyperbolic equations are obtained. The theoretical statements for the solution of this difference scheme are supported by the results of the numerical experiment.
Open Access
Big data–enabled sign prediction for Borsa Istanbul intraday equity prices
(Elsevier, 2023-12) Kılıç, A.; Güloğlu, B.; Yalçın, Atakan; Üstündağ, A.; International Finance; YALÇIN, Atakan
This paper employs a big data source, the Borsa Istanbul's “data analytics” information, to predict 5-min up, down, and steady signs drawn from closing price changes. Seven machine learning algorithms are compared with 2018 data for the entire year. Success levels for each method are reported for 26 liquid stocks in terms of macro-averaged F-measures. For the 5-min lagged data, nine equities are found to be statistically predictable. For lagged data over longer periods, equities remain predictable, decreasing gradually to zero as the markets absorb the data over time. Furthermore, economic gains for the nine equities are analyzed with algorithms where short selling is allowed or not allowed depending on these predictions. Four equities are found to yield more economic gains via machine learning–supported trading strategies than the equities' own price performances. Under the “efficient market hypothesis,” the results imply a lack of “semistrong-form efficiency.”
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The case against active pension funds: evidence from the Turkish private pension system
(Elsevier, 2015-06) Gökçen, U.; Yalçın, Atakan; International Finance; YALÇIN, Atakan
Using data on private Turkish pension funds we show that most active managers are not able to provide performance beyond what could be achieved by passive indexing. The average fund beats its benchmark by only 26 basis points, before fees. We also observe herding behavior among managers' asset allocation decisions which can potentially explain their lack of overperformance. Our results strongly support the need for low-cost index funds in emerging market countries that are reforming their pension schemes. We further recommend regulatory oversight on the “activeness” of funds and introduction of default plans with more balanced asset allocations.
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CEO overconfidence, reit investment activity and performance
(Wiley, 2015) Eichholtz, P.; Yönder, Erkan; International Finance; YÖNDER, Erkan
This is the first article to study the effects of overconfidence on trading activity and performance in real estate. The article looks at Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), as their investments and divestments can be identified with precision. We look at the effect of CEO overconfidence on investment activity and separately investigate property acquisitions and dispositions. We find that REITs with overconfident CEOs tend to invest more; these REITs acquire more assets and are less likely to sell assets than their counterparts if they have enough discretionary cash. Valuable private information is not the main driver for CEOs to be net buyers of company shares: the shares of their companies perform relatively weakly. In addition, we find that overconfident managers have lower property investment performance measured by net operating income and gain on sale of real estate.
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A concave security market line
(Elsevier, 2019-09) De Giorgi, E. G.; Post, T.; Yalçın, Atakan; International Finance; YALÇIN, Atakan
We provide theoretical and empirical arguments in favor of a diminishing marginal premium for market risk. In capital market equilibrium with binding portfolio restrictions, investors with different risk aversion levels generally hold different sets of risky securities. Whereas the traditional linear relation breaks down, equilibrium can be described or approximated by a concave relation between expected return and market beta, and a concave relationship between market alpha and market beta. An empirical analysis of U.S. stock market data confirms the existence of a significant concave cross-sectional relation between average return and estimated market beta. We estimate that the market risk premium is at least four to six percent per annum, substantially above traditional estimates. A practical implication for active portfolio managers is that the alpha of "betting against beta" strategies seems dominated by the medium-minushigh-beta spread rather than the low-minus-medium-beta spread. The success of such strategies thus largely depends on underweighting or short selling high-beta stocks.
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Construction, real estate mortgage market development and economic growth in Turkey
(2016) Erol, Işıl; International Finance; Abdulai, R. T.; Obeng-Odoom, F.; Ochieng, E.; Maliene, V.; EROL, Işıl
In line with the "economic sectors" definition of the Turkish Statistical Institute (2013), it is possible to define the overall real estate (RE) sectors in terms of two main components, the construction industry and other RE business activities.
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Corporate diversification and the cost of debt: evidence from REIT bank loans and mortgages
(Springer, 2020-11) Demirci, İ.; Eichholtz, P.; Yönder, Erkan; International Finance; YÖNDER, Erkan
This paper investigates whether corporate diversification by property type and by geography reduces the costs of debt capital. It employs asset-level information on the portfolios of U.S. REITs to measure diversification and looks at two of their main sources of debt capital: 1,173 commercial mortgages and 952 bank loans. The paper finds that diversification across different property types does indeed dependably reduce the cost of these different types of debt. The effect is about 7 basis points for bank loans if a firm’s property Herfindahl Index is lowered by one standard deviation and this effect gets stronger for REITs with worse financial health – as measured by the interest coverage ratio. The corresponding effect for commercial mortgages is around 22 basis points for collateral diversification by property type. After the crisis, the salience of the collateral asset increases. For diversification across regions, we do not find a consistent relationship between real asset diversification and loan pricing.
Open Access
Development and calibration of a currency trading strategy using global optimization
(Springer Science+Business Media, 2013-06) Çağlayan, Mustafa Onur; Pinter, Janos D.; Economics; Industrial Engineering; ÇAĞLAYAN, Mustafa Onur; PINTER, Janos
We have developed a new financial indicator—called the Interest Rate Differentials Adjusted for Volatility (IRDAV) measure—to assist investors in currency markets. On a monthly basis, we rank currency pairs according to this measure and then select a basket of pairs with the highest IRDAV values. Under positive market conditions, an IRDAV based investment strategy (buying a currency with high interest rate and simultaneously selling a currency with low interest rate, after adjusting for volatility of the currency pairs in question) can generate significant returns. However, when the markets turn for the worse and crisis situations evolve, investors exit such money-making strategies suddenly, and—as a result—significant losses can occur. In an effort to minimize these potential losses, we also propose an aggregated Risk Metric that estimates the total risk by looking at various financial indicators across different markets. These risk indicators are used to get timely signals of evolving crises and to flip the strategy from long to short in a timely fashion, to prevent losses and make further gains even during crisis periods. Since our proprietary model is implemented in Excel as a highly nonlinear “black box” computational procedure, we use suitable global optimization methodology and software—the Lipschitz Global Optimizer solver suite linked to Excel—to maximize the performance of the currency basket, based on our selection of key decision variables. After the introduction of the new currency trading model and its implementation, we present numerical results based on actual market data. Our results clearly show the advantages of using global optimization based parameter settings, compared to the typically used “expert estimates” of the key model parameters.
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Do mutual funds herd in industries?
(Elsevier, 2015-03) Çeliker, Umut; Chowdhury, J.; Sonaer, G.; International Finance; ÇELİKER, Umut
This study examines whether mutual funds herd in industries and the extent to which such herding impacts industry valuations. Using two herding measures proposed by Lakonishok et al. (1992) and Sias (2004) we document that mutual funds herd in industries. We show that industry herding is not driven by fund flows and that it is not a manifestation of individual stock herding. We also find evidence indicating that herding in industries by mutual funds is related to the industry momentum phenomenon first documented by Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999), but it does not drive industry valuations away from their fundamentals.
Open Access
The effects of foreign acquisitions on the value of industry peers
(Cambridge University Press, 2023-03) Yılmaz, Ümit; International Finance; YILMAZ, Ümit
This paper studies how industry peers' stock prices respond when another firm in the industry is acquired by a foreign firm. The average stock price reactions of industry peers in horizontal foreign acquisitions around deal announcements are significantly negative. Peers' returns are more negative in growing, less specialized, and competitive industries. Moreover, the negative stock price reactions of industry peers are related to future decreases in their operating performance. Overall, these results suggest that foreign acquisitions have strong competitive effects for the industry peers of U.S. target companies.
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An explainable credit scoring framework: A use case of addressing challenges in applied machine learning
(IEEE, 2022) Güntay, Levent; Bozan, E.; Tigrak, U.; Durdu, T.; Ozkahya, G. E.; International Finance; GÜNTAY, Levent
While Machine Learning (ML) classification algorithms can accurately classify a borrower's credit risk, the determinants of the credit score cannot be interpreted clearly by customers, decision makers and auditors. The lack of transparency of black-box credit scoring mechanisms reduces the trust in the banking system and has serious implications for the financing and growth of businesses. Recent regulations in the European Union and the United States require that credit decision mechanism should by explainable and transparent. We present a framework for developing an explainable credit scoring model. Our scientific novelty is to follow a simple and parsimonious Surrogate approach for credit scoring. This approach estimates an explainable white-box model that effectively fits to the in-sample forecasts of the most accurate 'black-box' model. We implement the Surrogate credit risk framework using check transactions data provided by a Turkish bank. We find that the Surrogate tree's performance is sufficiently close to performance of the most accurate black-box XGBoost model. Overall, our findings show that it is possible to develop a high-performing explainable credit scoring model with a minimal decrease in model accuracy.
Open Access
Foreign acquisition and credit risk: Evidence from the U.S. CDS market
(Cambridge University Press, 2023-06-17) Yılmaz, Ümit; International Finance; YILMAZ, Ümit
This article empirically analyzes the effect of foreign block acquisitions on U.S. target firms' credit risk as measured by their credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Foreign block purchases lead to a greater increase in the target firms' CDS premia post-acquisition compared to domestic block purchases. This effect is stronger when foreign owners are geographically and culturally more distant, and when they obtain majority control. The findings are consistent with an asymmetric information hypothesis, in which foreign owners are less effective monitors due to information barriers.
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Gender-specific preferences in global performance management - an empirical study of male and female leaders in a multinational context
(Wiley, 2015-01) Festing, M.; Knappert, Lena; Kornau, A.; International Business and Trade; KNAPPERT, Lena
This study investigates gender-specific preferences in one important human resource management (HRM) practice—namely, global performance management (GPM). GPM has major consequences for the career advancement of women and can therefore also represent a barrier if it is rooted in traditional male corporate cultures. As prior research suggests that the underrepresentation of women in top management positions is a worldwide phenomenon with only minor national variations, empirical data were collected in five countries belonging to various cultural clusters: China, France, Germany, South Africa, and the United States. For all countries, the results show that preferences vary significantly between male and female managers for crucial parts of the GPM system (actors’ roles, evaluation methods, feedback procedures, and GPM purposes). This study confirms that the preferences of female managers do not match more male-oriented GPM practices, indicating that female managers are less satisfied with existing GPM procedures. It was particularly surprising to find that these gender differences do not vary according to cultural background, but rather display the same pattern in all investigated countries. These findings not only have the potential to explain the often-limited career advancement of women, but also have major implications for multinational companies aiming to retain talented women.
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Global trends in liquidity creation: The role of the off-balance sheet
(Peter Lang AG, 2019-03-28) Akın, Özlem; Özsoy, Satı Mehmet; Economics; International Finance; PARLAYAN, Özlem Akın; ÖZSOY, Satı Mehmet
Banks create liquidity by transforming liquid liabilities into illiquid assets and this is one of their main functions. Yet excessive liquidity creation, especially via off-balance sheet activities, might have contributed to the 2008-2009 financial crisis. In this chapter, we analyze the dynamics of liquidity creation in Turkey and the United States, and the contribution of off-balance sheet activities therein.
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Macroeconomic risk and hedge fund returns
(Elsevier, 2014-10) Bali, T. G.; Brown, S. J.; Çağlayan, Mustafa Onur; Economics; ÇAĞLAYAN, Mustafa Onur
This paper estimates hedge fund and mutual fund exposure to newly proposed measures of macroeconomic risk that are interpreted as measures of economic uncertainty. We find that the resulting uncertainty betas explain a significant proportion of the cross-sectional dispersion in hedge fund returns. However, the same is not true for mutual funds, for which there is no significant relationship. After controlling for a large set of fund characteristics and risk factors, the positive relation between uncertainty betas and future hedge fund returns remains economically and statistically significant. Hence, we argue that macroeconomic risk is a powerful determinant of cross-sectional differences in hedge fund returns.

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