Developing a national pandemic vaccination calendar under supply uncertainty

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries faced challenges in developing and maintaining a reliable national pandemic vaccination calendar due to vaccine supply uncertainty. Deviating from the initial calendar due to vaccine delivery delays eroded public trust in health authorities and the government, hindering vaccination efforts. Motivated by these challenges, we address the problem of developing a long-term national pandemic vaccination calendar under supply uncertainty. We propose a novel two-stage mixed integer programming model that considers critical factors such as multiple doses, varying dosing schemes, and uncertainties in vaccine delivery timing and quantity. We present an efficient aggregation-based algorithm to solve this complex problem. Additionally, we extend our model to allow for dynamic adjustments to the vaccine schedule in response to mandatory policy changes, such as modifications to dose intervals, during ongoing vaccinations. We validate our model based on a case study developed by using real COVID-19 vaccination data from Norway. Our results demonstrate the advantages of the proposed stochastic optimization approach and heuristic algorithm. We also present valuable managerial insights through extensive numerical analysis, which can aid public health authorities in preparing for future pandemics.