The political economy of coups d’etat: a general survey and a local theory for Turkey

Abstract

This article surveys the political economy of coups in Turkey, examining both their economic causes and the economic consequences they seem to generate. It reminds that whether coups had a negative causal effect on Turkish economic growth remains to be compellingly shown. It highlights that military intervention attempts tend to follow already troublesome economic times: Before the 1960 and 1980 coups, 1971 and 2007 memoranda, as well as the failed coup attempts in 1962 and 2016, economic growth slowed down compared to a previous five-year period. This is in line with global trends about coups becoming likely following slower economic growth. Furthermore, students of Turkish politics have noticed a more specific economic policy-making pattern centering on currency devaluation during episodes preceding coups. This article discusses whether such a pattern may be taken as a ‘local theory’ of Turkish coups while discussing its limitations.