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Communicating forecasts: the simplicity of simulated experience
It is unclear whether decision makers who receive forecasts expressed as probability distributions over outcomes understand the implications of this form of communication. We suggest a solution based on the fact that people ...
The two settings of kind and wicked learning environments
(Association for Psychological Science, 2015-10)
Inference involves two settings: In the first, information is acquired (learning); in the second, it is applied (predictions or choices). Kind learning environments involve close matches between the informational elements ...
A picture's worth a thousand numbers
(Harvard Business Publishing, 2013-06)
The article examines research on the subject of humans' difficulty in understanding probability and the value of graphic representations in improving that understanding. Topics include research by "Harvard Business Review" ...
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