Pricing of financial instruments and stock market predictions is a specific and relatively narrow field, which has been mainly explored by mathematicians, economists and financial engineers. Prediction to make profits in ...

It is unclear whether decision makers who receive forecasts expressed as probability distributions over outcomes understand the implications of this form of communication. We suggest a solution based on the fact that people ...

Inference involves two settings: In the first, information is acquired (learning); in the second, it is applied (predictions or choices). Kind learning environments involve close matches between the informational elements ...

Do mundane daily choices, such as what brands people buy in a supermarket, reflect aspects of values and ideologies? This article presents a large-scale field study performed to determine whether traits associated with a ...

The article examines research on the subject of humans' difficulty in understanding probability and the value of graphic representations in improving that understanding. Topics include research by "Harvard Business Review" ...

Providing information for decision making should be like telling a story. You need to know, first, what you want to say; second, whom you are addressing; and third, how to match the message and audience. However, data ...