Reasoning under uncertainty: variations of subjective logic deduction

Abstract

This work develops alternatives to the classical subjective logic deduction operator. Given antecedent and consequent propositions, the new operators form opinions of the consequent that match the variance of the consequent posterior distribution given opinions on the antecedent and the conditional rules connecting the antecedent with the consequent. As a result, the uncertainty of the consequent actually map to the spread for the probability projection of the opinion. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate this connection for the new operators. Finally, the work uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the quality of fusing opinions from multiple agents before and after deduction.