Soyer, EmreHogarth, R. M.2015-10-232015-10-232015-080148-2963http://hdl.handle.net/10679/951https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.029Due to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.In providing a “golden rule” for forecasting, Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (this issue) raise aspirations that reliable forecasting is possible. They advocate a conservative approach that mainly involves extrapolating from the present. We comment on three issues that relate to their proposed Golden Rule: its scope of application, the importance of highly improbable events, and the challenges of communicating forecasts.enginfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccessArticle6881702170400035674310000610.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.029ConservativeGolden RuleScenarioSimulation2-s2.0-84930277195