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dc.contributor.authorWang, Q.
dc.contributor.authorÖcal, M. Rıfat
dc.contributor.authorAugenbroe, G.
dc.contributor.authorMengüç, Mustafa Pınar
dc.contributor.authorÖzuyar, Pınar Gökçin
dc.description.abstractAs new and retrofitted Turkish buildings adopt stateof-the-art energy efficiency measures, hidden risks associated with compromised thermal comfort and disappointing returns on investment could go unnoticed unless a building is subjected to an uncertainty and risk analysis. Standard deterministic predictions are not sufficient, as they do not capture the effects of uncertainty and variability with regard to local microclimate conditions, physical parameters, and discrepancies in the model formulations, also known as “model form uncertainties”. In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertainty on the performance of a Turkish campus building. We examine the risk that an energy efficient design that is accepted because of the positive results of a conventional energy simulation, causes unacceptable discomfort and unsatisfactory returns on investment. The results of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis shows that these risks exist in certain areas and not in others. The predicted annual output of PV panels is relatively stable with only minor variability, which justifies the investment in Istanbul. Same with shading devices, which lead to a satisfactory internal rate of return under uncertainty. However, with regard to comfort we find that risks could be substantial. We find that relying completely on occupants opening and closing windows for fresh air with fan coil units maintaining the indoor temperature may lead to an insufficient supply of outdoor air for occupants and a substantial risk of overheating. Overall, the results of the analysis demonstrate that understanding risks is in some cases crucial to make an informed design decision regarding various energy saving design strategies.
dc.description.sponsorshipNSF ; Georgia Institute of Technology ; European Commission ; CEEE
dc.publisherInternational Building Performance Simulation Association
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of BS2015: 14th Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association
dc.titleAn evaluation of energy efficiency measures in a Turkish campus building for thermal comfort and economic risken_US
dc.typeConference paperen_US
dc.contributor.departmentÖzyeğin University
dc.contributor.authorID(ORCID 0000-0001-5483-587X & YÖK ID 141825) Mengüç, Pınar
dc.contributor.authorID(ORCID 0000-0002-2505-2216 & YÖK ID 148993) Özuyar, Pınar
dc.contributor.ozuauthorMengüç, Mustafa Pınar
dc.contributor.ozuauthorÖzuyar, Pınar Gökçin
dc.subject.keywordsEnergy conservation
dc.subject.keywordsEnergy efficiency
dc.subject.keywordsPhotovoltaic cells
dc.subject.keywordsRisk analysis
dc.subject.keywordsRisk assessment
dc.subject.keywordsStructural design
dc.subject.keywordsThermal comfort
dc.relation.publicationcategoryConference Paper - International - Institutional Academic Staff

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