Multi-criteria decision-making model for risk management in modular construction projects

Abstract

The modular sector needs a precise guide to determine the most efficient risk management approaches. The main research objective of this study is to develop a multi-criteria decision-making model to find the most efficient risk management approach according to the relevant risk criteria. The risk criteria and risk management approaches for modular construction projects were also identified and classified within this scope. A systematic literature review, semi-structured interviews, and open-ended questionnaires were performed for identification and classification purposes. For ranking and quantifying the identified risks and risk approaches, as well as developing the decision-making model, the Delphi method and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) were conducted. A two-round Delphi method, with eleven experts, was conducted to achieve efficient performance scores of the identified risk management approaches. The percentage standard deviation decreased, Relative Importance Index (RII), Cronbach’s alpha, and Kendall’s coefficient of concordance (Kendall’s W) were calculated to ensure the outputs’ reliability, validity, and agreement level. The AHP method opted to quantify the Delphi method outputs, solve the multi-criteria decision-making process, and develop the multi-criteria decision-making model for risk management of modular construction projects. Triangulation results show that the critical risk categories are supply chain, health and safety, stakeholders, and governmental support. Lean principles such as the Last Planner System, Value Stream Mapping, Just in Time, and Kaizen are top-rated risk management approaches. This research’s novelty is identifying and analyzing crucial risk categories, providing the relevant risk management approaches ranked according to efficiency performance, and presenting a decision-making model as a guideline for risk management of modular construction projects.