Person: ŞENER, Emrah
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Emrah
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ŞENER
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ArticlePublication Metadata only Robust term structure estimation in developed and emerging markets(Springer Nature, 2018-01) Ahi, Emrah; Akgiray, V.; Şener, Emrah; Business Administration; ŞENER, Emrah; Ahi, EmrahDespite powerful advances in interest rate curve modeling for data-rich countries in the last 30 years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of estimation of the term structure of interest rates for emerging markets. This may be partly due to limited data availability. However, emerging bond markets are becoming increasingly important and liquid. It is, therefore, important to be understand whether conclusions drawn from developed countries carry over to emerging markets. We estimate model parameters of fully flexible Nelson–Siegel–Svensson term structures model which has become one of the most popular term structure model among academics, practitioners, and central bankers. We investigate four sets of bond data: U.S. Treasuries, and three major emerging market government bond data-sets (Brazil, Mexico and Turkey). By including both the very dense U.S. data and the comparatively sparse emerging market data, we ensure that are results are not specific to a particular data-set. We find that gradient and direct search methods perform poorly in estimating term structures of interest rates, while global optimization methods, particularly the hybrid particle swarm optimization introduced in this paper, do well. Our results are consistent across four countries, both in- and out-of-sample, and for perturbations in prices and starting values. For academics and practitioners interested in optimization methods, this study provides clear evidence of the practical importance of choice of optimization method and validates a method that works well for the NSS model.ArticlePublication Metadata only Predictability of emerging market local currency bond risk premia(Taylor & Francis, 2015) Akgiray, V.; Baronyan, S.; Şener, Emrah; Yıldız, Osman; Business Administration; ŞENER, Emrah; Yıldız, OsmanThis article investigates the source of predictability of emerging market (EM) local currency bond risk premia by using a dynamic factor approach based on a large panel of economic and financial time series. We find strong predictable variation in EM local currency excess bond returns that is associated with macroeconomic activity. We provide evidence that the main predictor variables are the factors based on real economic activity that are highly correlated with measures of industrial and manufacturing production; however, factors based on global financial factors also contain information about the future local currency bond returns. The predictive power of the extracted factors is both statistically significant and economically important. Our research has important implications for policymakers and pension fund managers.ArticlePublication Metadata only The geography of funding markets and limits to arbitrage(Society for Financial Studies, 2015-04) Buraschi, A.; Menguturk, M.; Şener, Emrah; Business Administration; ŞENER, EmrahWe use the relative pricing of pairs of emerging market (EM) sovereign bonds issued in both dollars and euros to study capital markets frictions during periods of financial distress. During the 2007–2008 crisis, we find the emergence of large pricing anomalies in EM sovereign bond markets. Neither liquidity nor short-selling constraints can explain these persistent events. We use both cross-sectional and time-series information on these pricing anomalies to learn about specific geographical frictions in funding markets. We find support for explanations based on the interaction of banking capital-structure frictions and the fragility of wholesale funding markets. We document the effects of nonconventional policy interventions on this mispricing.ArticlePublication Metadata only Investigation of stochastic pairs trading strategies under different volatility regimes(Blackwell, 2010-09) Baronyan, S.; Boduroğlu, İ. İ.; Şener, Emrah; Business Administration; ŞENER, EmrahWe investigate several market-neutral trading strategies and find empirical evidence that market-neutral equity trading outperforms in 2008, the first full year of the global financial meltdown. In our experiments we use 14 distinct market-neutral trading strategies, using the combination of seven trading methods and two selection methods of pairs tradingArticlePublication Metadata only Ranking the predictive performances of value-at-risk estimation methods(Elsevier, 2012) Şener, Emrah; Baronyan, Sayat; Mengütürk, L. A.; Business Administration; ŞENER, Emrah; BARONYAN, SayatWe introduce a ranking model and a complementary predictive ability test statistic to investigate the forecasting performances of different Value at Risk (VaR) methods, without specifying a fixed benchmark method. The period including the recent credit crisis offers a unique laboratory for the analysis of the relative successes of different VaR methods when used in both emerging and developed markets. The proposed ranking model aims to form a unified framework which penalizes not only the magnitudes of errors between realized and predicted losses, but also the autocorrelation between the errors. The model also penalizes excessive capital allocations. In this respect, the ranking model seeks for VaR methods which can capture the delicate balance between the minimum governmental regulations for financial sustainability, and cost-efficient risk management for economic vitality. As a complimentary statistical tool for the ranking model, we introduce a predictive ability test which does not require the selection of a benchmark method. This statistic, which compares all methods simultaneously, is an alternative to existing predictive ability tests, which compare forecasting methods two at a time. We test and rank twelve different popular VaR methods on the equity indices of eleven emerging and seven developed markets. According to the ranking model and the predictive ability test, our empirical findings suggest that asymmetric methods, such as CAViaR Asymmetric and EGARCH, generate the best performing VaR forecasts. This indicates that the performance of VaR methods does not depend entirely on whether they are parametric, non-parametric, semi-parametric or hybrid; but rather on whether they can model the asymmetry of the underlying data effectively or not.ArticlePublication Metadata only The impact of policy decisions on global liquidity during the recent financial crisis(Wiley, 2015-03) Satıroğlu, Sait; Şener, Emrah; Shafer, M.; Yıldırım, Y.; Business Administration; ŞENER, Emrah; Satıroğlu, SaitThe collapse of the recent housing price bubble precipitated the 2007–2008 financial crisis and caused international funding liquidity to dry up. We investigate how economic policies undertaken by the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury around the crisis impacted global liquidity by examining the covered interest rate parity (CIRP) condition. We find that swap lines orchestrated by the Fed, stress test announcements, asset purchase programs, and other economic policy and news events significantly impacted CIRP violations. Our findings indicate that policies undertaken during the crisis helped relieve market frictions in foreign exchange markets and that the impact of these policies differed for developed and emerging markets.