Browsing by Author "Can, Zehra"

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Churn prediction for mobile prepaid subscribers
(Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communicatio, 2017) Can, Zehra; Albey, Erinç; Industrial Engineering; ALBEY, Erinç; Can, Zehra
In telecommunication, mobile operators prefer to acquire postpaid subscribers and increase their incoming revenue based on the usage of postpaid lines. However, subscribers tend to buy and use prepaid mobile lines because of the simplicity of the usage, and due to higher control over the cost of the line compared to postpaid lines. Moreover the prepaid lines have less paper work between the operator and subscriber. The mobile subscriber can end their contract, whenever they want, without making any contact with the operator. After reaching the end of the defined period, the subscriber will disappear, which is defined as “involuntary churn”. In this work, prepaid subscribers’ behavior are defined with their RFM data and some additional features, such as usage, call center and refill transactions. We model the churn behavior using Pareto/NBD model and with two benchmark models: a logistic regression model based on RFM data, and a logistic regression model based on the additional features. Pareto/NBD model is a crucial step in calculating customer lifetime value (CLV) and aliveness of the customers. If Pareto/NBD model proves to be a valid approach, then a mobile operator can define valuable prepaid subscribers using this and decide on the actions for these customers, such as suggesting customized offers.
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A mathematical model for customer lifetime value based offer management
(Springer, 2018) Şahin, Ahmet; Can, Zehra; Albey, Erinç; Industrial Engineering; Filipe, J.; Quix, C.; Bernardino, J.; ALBEY, Erinç; Şahin, Ahmet; Can, Zehra
Customers with prepaid lines possess higher attrition risk compared to postpaid customers, since prepaid customers do not sign long-term obligatory contracts and may churn anytime. For this reason, mobile operators have to offer engaging benefits to keep prepaid subscribers with the company. Since all such offers incur additional cost, mobile operators face an optimization problem while selecting the most suitable offers for customers at risk. In this study, an offer management framework targeting prepaid customers of a telecommunication company is developed. Proposed framework chooses the most suitable offer for each customer through a mathematical model, which utilizes customer lifetime value and churn risk. Lifetime values are estimated using logistic regression and Pareto/NBD models, and several variants of these models are used to predict churn risks using a large number of customer specific features.
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A mathematical model for customer lifetime value based offer management
(2018-01) Can, Zehra; Albey, Erinç; Yanıkoğlu, İhsan; Güler, M. G.; Albey, Erinç; Yanıkoğlu, İhsan; Güler, Mehmet Güray; Department of Industrial Engineering; Can, Zehra
Customers with prepaid lines possess higher attrition risk compared to postpaid customers since prepaid customers do not sign long-term obligatory contracts and may churn anytime. For this reason, mobile operators have to offer engaging benefits to keep prepaid subscribers with the company. Since all such offers incur additional cost, mobile operators face an optimization problem while selecting the most suitable offers for customers at risk. In this study, an offer management framework targeting prepaid customers of a telecommunication company is developed. Proposed framework chooses the most suitable offer for each customer through a mathematical model, which utilizes customer lifetime value and churn risk. Lifetime values are estimated using logistic regression and Pareto/NBD models.