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dc.contributor.authorHogarth, R. M.
dc.contributor.authorSoyer, Emre
dc.date.accessioned2015-10-22T09:48:29Z
dc.date.available2015-10-22T09:48:29Z
dc.date.issued2015-08
dc.identifier.issn0148-2963
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10679/941
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296315001575
dc.descriptionDue to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.
dc.description.abstractIt is unclear whether decision makers who receive forecasts expressed as probability distributions over outcomes understand the implications of this form of communication. We suggest a solution based on the fact that people are effective at estimating the frequency of data accurately in environments that are characterized by plentiful, unbiased feedback. Thus, forecasters should provide decision makers with simulation models that allow them to experience the frequencies of potential outcomes. Before implementing this suggestion, however, it is important to assess whether people can make appropriate probabilistic inferences based on such simulated experience. In an experimental program, we find that statistically sophisticated and naïve individuals relate easily to this presentation mode, they prefer it to analytic descriptions, and their probabilistic inferences improve. We conclude that asking decision makers to use simulations actively is potentially a powerful – and simplifying – method to improve the practice of forecasting.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipthe Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Business Research
dc.rightsrestrictedAccess
dc.titleCommunicating forecasts: the simplicity of simulated experienceen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.peerreviewedyesen_US
dc.publicationstatuspublisheden_US
dc.contributor.departmentÖzyeğin University
dc.contributor.authorID124620
dc.contributor.ozuauthorSoyer, Emre
dc.identifier.volume68
dc.identifier.issue8
dc.identifier.startpage1800
dc.identifier.endpage1809
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000356743100020
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.039
dc.subject.keywordsCommunication of forecastsen_US
dc.subject.keywordsSimulationen_US
dc.subject.keywordsExperienceen_US
dc.subject.keywordsPredictive judgmentsen_US
dc.subject.keywordsProbabilistic inferenceen_US
dc.subject.keywordsDecision makingen_US
dc.identifier.scopusSCOPUS:2-s2.0-84930277360


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