The golden rule of forecasting: objections, refinements, and enhancements
Type :
Article
Publication Status :
published
Access :
restrictedAccess
Abstract
In providing a “golden rule” for forecasting, Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (this issue) raise aspirations that reliable forecasting is possible. They advocate a conservative approach that mainly involves extrapolating from the present. We comment on three issues that relate to their proposed Golden Rule: its scope of application, the importance of highly improbable events, and the challenges of communicating forecasts.
Source :
Journal of Business Research
Date :
2015-08
Volume :
68
Issue :
8
Publisher :
Elsevier
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10679/951http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296315001435
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