Now showing items 1-3 of 3
Communicating forecasts: the simplicity of simulated experience
It is unclear whether decision makers who receive forecasts expressed as probability distributions over outcomes understand the implications of this form of communication. We suggest a solution based on the fact that people ...
The golden rule of forecasting: objections, refinements, and enhancements
In providing a “golden rule” for forecasting, Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (this issue) raise aspirations that reliable forecasting is possible. They advocate a conservative approach that mainly involves extrapolating from ...
Providing information for decision making: Contrasting description and simulation
Providing information for decision making should be like telling a story. You need to know, first, what you want to say; second, whom you are addressing; and third, how to match the message and audience. However, data ...
Share this page